Castells, mobile communication, and the future

I read yesterday, in the Spanish paper El País, an interview with Manuel Castells. The motivation for the interview is the publication of the Spanish translation of his latest book: Mobile Communication and Society.

As usual, Castells' comments are thought provoking. I have specially found interesting his position against what could be called technological futurology, that he summarizes in this phrase (translatedd from the Spanish original text): "In reality, what most people calls future is the present, what happens is that they do not know it".

He shows his point describing how mobile technologies are changing the way the world gets access to communication and services. There has been a lot of talk in the past years about the digital divide and how most part of the world population does not have access to computers and, consequently, data networks and services. There have been lots of initiatives to reduce the digital divide, usually focused on providing some kind of access to computers to the 'disconnected' populations (internet kiosks, internet community centers, OLPC...), but what is really giving the possibility to access on-line services to many groups that would, otherwise, remain disconnected are mobile technologies: more than half of the world's population today has access to a mobile phone.

This concept of future is, precisely, what I want to refer to in the title of the blog. It is not about forecasting what is going to happen, and what the world is going to look like ten years from now. Lots of people have tried to do that with very little success. The possibilities of getting it wrong are much, much higher than guessing what is going to happen, so lets leave predictions to astrologers, chiromantics....

For me, taking about future is talking about what is happening today that is changing the way we do things, communicate, work, live.... Future is the path, not the destination, and when you want to follow a path that you do not know, you need to focus on the curves and slopes, the little changes, rather than trying to figure out what the destination is going to look like.